By Manny Mogato
(July 6, 2024) — Joe Biden’s recent debacle on the CNN June 27 United States (US) presidential debate rattled the Democrat party, believing his wobbly performance might affect his chances of winning the elections in November.
On the other hand, the Republicans were thrilled at the prospect of regaining the White House.
The latest Reuters opinion poll showed a tight race between the incumbent Biden and the comebacking Trump.
However, some Democrats wanted Biden to abandon his re-election and give way to a much stronger, younger, and more competent candidate who could take down Donald Trump. Some Democrats have suggested replacing Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris, who could be the first Asian-American and woman president, is seen as a strong and progressive leader who could potentially unite the party and appeal to a broad range of voters. However, this move has its controversies and potential drawbacks.
When the Democrats fielded Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump defeated her, although she got more popular votes.
In the US elections, the electoral college votes matter more than popular ones. This system has been a subject of debate and controversy and plays a crucial role in determining the election outcome.
Another opinion poll also showed that Harris may not win against Trump, although she only slightly trailed in the survey.
Whether Biden or Trump wins in November, many believed there would be very little effect on the Philippines because both the Democrats and the Republicans have solid anti-China sentiments.
Trump’s victory may be bad news for Ukraine because many believed the would-be Republican standard-bearer abhorred war.
While Trump may not be ready to go to war with China over the West Philippine Sea, he supported the Philippines’s position on the maritime dispute with China.
When Trump was in power from 2016 to 2020, his then-US secretary of State Mike Pompeo changed the US position on the South China Sea, explicitly supporting the landmark 2016 arbitral ruling that repudiated China’s nine-dash-line claim.
The Biden administration sustained and reaffirmed the US administration’s “ironclad” commitment and honored the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Moreover, the Trump administration is the only US administration that has provided brand-new military equipment, like ScanEagle surveillance drones and cameras installed in C-130 planes patrolling the West Philippine Sea.
From 2015 to 2022, the US had already transferred about $1.4 billion worth of Vietnam War-era utility helicopters, mothballed Coast Guard cutters, drones, refurbished transport planes, armored vehicles, communications equipment, and small weapons. Under Biden’s administration, it pledged about $1 billion in foreign military sales for 2025 but offered to sell 12 F16 multi-role fighters and three C-130J Super Hercules planes.
The Biden administration has only made promises, but the Trump administration, during the time of Rodrigo Duterte, delivered equipment. Relations between Manila and Washington were at an all-time low during Duterte’s time. Yet, the US delivered many materials and equipment.
The Philippine ambassador to the United States, Jose Manuel Romualdez, was also confident the level of security cooperation between Manila and Washington would remain high, wide, and deep. Romualdez said he was assured by a former Trump security adviser that the US would stand by its oldest ally in the region. However, the Philippines must only sometimes count on the US security umbrella and assistance.
If its interests do not align with the Philippines’ interests, it may abandon its former colony and oldest alliance partner. It had happened many times, particularly in the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff.
The Philippines also does not support US initiatives in the Middle East, and it is worried over the 12 million Filipino nationals working in Saudi Arabia and around the Gulf and northern African region.
The Philippines should only depend a little on the United States. It should pursue an independent foreign policy but continue cultivating closer relations with like-minded states.
Having the United States on the Philippines’ side is good, but it should not rely too much. It might be reassuring to hear that the United States would not change its China policy whoever wins the elections in November.
But the Philippines must be pragmatic and prepare for the worst to come. One Chinese geopolitical expert warned: “The Philippines should not lean on a crumbling wall.”
Thus, the Philippines must remain a friend to all and an enemy to one.
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