OPINION | Actions speak louder

June 29, 2024 , 07:10 PM

By Manny Mogato

(June 30, 2024, UPDATED) — Every time a serious incident happens in the West Philippine Sea, expect Biden administration officials to call their Filipino counterparts immediately.

They would condemn China’s illegal and dangerous actions against lawful operations to deliver humanitarian supplies to troops stationed aboard BRP Sierra Madre.

Following the same old and tired script, they would reaffirm Washington’s “ironclad” support to Manila under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

After the June 17 incident in Ayungin Shoal, the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made separate phone calls to their counterparts — Foreign Affairs Sec. Enrique Manalo, Defense Sec. Gilberto Teodoro, and National Security Adviser Eduardo Año, respectively, in succeeding days.

The Philippines welcomes the statement of support but needs more vigor to demonstrate the robust alliance between the two allies.

Pres. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. wanted a more robust response to the Chinese actions. The President said the diplomatic protests are not enough to deter China’s violations of Philippine sovereign rights in its maritime zones.

Since President Marcos, Jr. assumed office in July 2022, Manila has filed several notes verbale, protesting China’s presence and activities in the West Philippine Sea. Beijing ignored them, insisting it had undisputable rights over the waters claimed in the South China Sea.

However, no state has recognized and supported China’s claim based on its historical nine-dash-line policy. The Philippines’ jurisdiction and sovereign rights in its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone were recognized under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It was further strengthened by a 2016 landmark ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration, recognizing Manila’s economic rights on features over which China seized control.

The Philippines needs more help to improve its defense capabilities and enhance its skills and capacities to deter China. Words do not make China cringe and stop its harassment. It only encourages Beijing to escalate the situation further.

From shadowing and blocking Philippine vessels sailing into Bajo de Masinloc and Ayungin Shoal, China has started to ram and blast them with water cannons. On June 17, the Chinese Coast Guard, armed with axes, machetes, and knives, went further. They boarded the Philippine Navy’s rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIB) boats, took some weapons, and punctured the vessels. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner, Jr. described the Chinese actions as piracy and demanded the return of the confiscated guns.

The military would not start a shooting war in the West Philippine Sea. It would only defend itself once it was fired upon.

China knew the rules of engagement. It will not use force or invite the United States to intervene under the Mutual Defense Treaty. China will only employ its gray zone tactics, testing the patience of the US and its allies, including the Philippines.

With conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East, the United States is not prepared to fight another war on another front. China is also unprepared to confront the United States, knowing its military remained inferior to the Americans despite its military modernization and buildup programs.

The US has also been busy preparing to defend Taiwan. It is developing logistics bases in the Philippines and moving missiles and other defensive equipment to deter threats from China, North Korea, and Russia in the Indo-Pacific region. This situation would continue until 2027 when the US expected China to invade Taiwan to force reunification.

The Philippines must also prepare for a major conflict in the region. Whether the Philippines would like it or not, it would be dragged into a conflict because of its proximity. China’s warships and warplanes would pass through the country’s sea lanes and airspace when it finally launched an invasion into Taiwan.

While making its preparations, the Philippines would need its allies to upgrade its capabilities and capacities through equipment transfers, training, and exercises. It has to expand its alliances and defense cooperation with like-minded countries. While it can still benefit from the alliance, it should maximize the support and assistance it is getting.

Apart from improvements in several local bases identified as EDCA locations, the US still needs to transfer arms to the Philippines. It pledged only $1 billion in foreign military sales credits next year. Japan has also promised equipment transfers, and Australia has offered to build coastal boats for the Coast Guard. Other states, like Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Tukey, United Kingdom, France, and Sweden, have been offering to sell weapons systems.

The Philippines needs other states to help increase deterrence. Actions are required, not just words. However, in the end, the Philippines has to fight and defend its territorial integrity, sovereignty, and sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea without relying on the US and other allies.

The Philippines has to stand independently and fight for its rights, dignity, and honor.

*The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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