OPINION | Information War

April 16, 2025 , 10:25 PM

By Manny Mogato

(April 16, 2025) — Recent pre-election survey results showed a surge in the voters’ preference for Senate candidates associated with former president Rodrigo Duterte.

Senator Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go has wrestled the top spot from perennial leader Congressman Erwin Tulfo, with more than 61 percent. Tulfo was a distant second, with 51 percent.

Senator Ronald de la Rosa, who may face an investigation from the International Criminal Court, raced to the third spot with nearly 49 percent in the March 23-29 opinion polls. He was in fifth place in the February survey.

Actor Philip Salvador came in 13th place with 30 percent, while Congressman Rodante Marcoleta was in 16th place with 28 percent. Salvador was in the 18th spot, and Marcoleta was beyond 20th place in the previous survey.

Political scientists attributed the rise of candidates associated with Duterte to his arrest on March 11, and the Filipinos’ dissatisfaction with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s handling of the economy – rising inflation, job creation, and perception of widespread corruption in government.

In a worst-case scenario on May 12, and if this trend continues, only half of the president’s 12 “Alyansa” candidates may win in the Senate election.

Under the best-case scenario, eight to nine pro-administration candidates would win, except Senators Francis Tolentino and Imee Marcos, former interior secretary Benhur Abalos, boxing champion Manny Pacquiao, or Las Piñas Congresswoman Camille Villar.

Can the pro-Duterte candidates sustain the surge three to four weeks away from the mid-term elections?

It is hard to tell, but the administration team would campaign hard and push resources to make sure “Alyansa” would dominate the balloting.

President Marcos would also exert his influence to make sure his candidates win in the elections.

However, the prospect for a Marcos endorsement is dim after a more recent survey showed the president’s approval rating declining 17 percentage points to 25 percent from 42 percent.

In the same opinion polls, Vice President Sara Duterte’s approval rating went up by 7 percentage points from 52 percent, a clear majority.

Political scientists say Filipinos could be sympathizing with her after her father’s arrest and detention at the ICC facility in The Hague.

Duterte’s arrest was the biggest factor in the rise of Sara’s approval rating as well as in the surge of Duterte-associated candidates.

The Dutertes have been using emotions to win support and paint the administration as the villain in the country’s political drama.

Besides, Sara has changed her tone, from a foul-mouthed vice president ready to brawl with anybody to a soft-spoken grieving daughter after her father’s arrest.

It is mind-boggling why Sara Duterte’s approval rating soared when she was doing an excellent job as vice president.

After quitting the Department of Education, she is not doing a spectacular job as vice president. She was not even reporting for work for at least a month when she flew to The Hague to be with her father at the ICC detention facility.

On the contrary, Marcos absorbed all the problems the country faced, partly through social media accounts, which could be fake and run by bots.

Fake social media accounts also helped the Dutertes after the Interpol, assisted by the local police, arrested Duterte based on a warrant issued by the ICC.

Reuters reported a study that showed these coordinated and sophisticated fake social media accounts manipulated public opinion, swaying support to the former president.

Another study showed that about 45 percent of social media discussions were about the looming showdown between the Marcoses and the Dutertes.

“What we found in the Philippines isn’t just a disinformation spike — it’s digital warfare,” Cyabra’s chief executive, Dan Brahmy, said in a Reuters report.

“These fake networks didn’t just show up — they shaped the conversation,” Brahmy said in the same Reuters report, adding the election-related accounts could garner around 54 million views.

The Marcos government must move faster to counter these influence operations and disinformation and seize control of the narrative.

Otherwise, the pro-Duterte candidates would win half of the Senate’s 12 vacant seats. The president’s endorsement in the election would have little or no effect as his approval rating continued to sink.

A month after Duterte was brought to the ICC, the Marcos government must take advantage of the lull in Duterte propaganda.

The Duterte camp has been running out of propaganda lines in the run-up to the elections in May, as there was no news about the former president awaiting another trial court appearance in September.

In July, Vice President Sara Duterte would appear in an impeachment court as she fights for her political survival.

The lull favors the Marcos administration to counter disinformation and influence operations from China to dominate the narrative to help win pro-administration candidates.

Truly, an information war has begun. But this was an opportunity for the Marcos administration to shift its narrative from do-good to expose its political foes’ excesses and wrongdoings.

The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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