By Manny Mogato
(May 4, 2025) – With a week to go before balloting, candidates who are hanging by a thread have been storming the heavens and doing everything to get to the winning circle.
They will employ all the tactics and throw all their sources to get the 11th and 12th place in the race for 12 vacant seats in the Senate.
This is where the political endorsements of the president and other top leaders matter. Of course, the pro-administration coalition candidates have the advantage in terms of political machinery, material and financial resources, and the president’s influence.
Public opinion polls from October 2024, when candidates filed their certificate of candidacy until April, or a month before the elections, showed the administration candidates dominating the pre-election voter preference surveys with eight to nine candidates.
Three or four non-administration candidates would likely win the May 12 elections: Sen. Bong Go, Sen. Bato Dela Rosa, broadcaster Ben Tulfo, and game show host Willie Revillame.
That means two or three administration candidates would likely lose: former interior secretary Benhur Abalos, Sen. Francis Tolentino, and Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar. The president’s sister, Sen. Imee Marcos, who was dropped from the administration ticket, would likely not make it too.
Boxing icon and former senator Manny Pacquiao is also in danger of losing.
In two independent polls, Pacquiao was in the 12th position, but there was one survey where he was in the 13th position.
Many political science professors have predicted that Pres. Bongbong Marcos Jr.’s Alyansa ticket would win big in the 2025 midterm elections.
The three non-Alyansa candidates were in the “safe zone” with Go in the pole position. It is still unknown if he can sustain his lead until May 12 or if perennial poll leader Erwin Tulfo will emerge as the top senatorial candidate.
Some surveys showed Dela Rosa, another ally of former president Rodrigo Duterte, in the first eight slots along with Ben Tulfo.
In other surveys, opposition leader Bam Aquino was in the 11th position, and fellow opposition candidate Kiko Pangilinan was in the 13th or 14th position. Technically, the two have fighting chances because they ranked higher than Abalos, Marcos, and Tolentino.
One independent pollster showed some interesting data that revealed the country is equally divided between the Marcos and Duterte supporters.
For instance, in the WR Numero Research survey, all of Duterte’s 10 allies running for senator were winning in the March poll when respondents from all six Mindanao regions were asked. Dela Rosa topped the opinion polls.
However, respondents from Luzon and Visayas repudiated pro-Duterte candidates, opting for the pro-administration bets and two opposition candidates, Aquino and Pangilinan.
Political strategists have long said it is important for candidates to focus on the Pangasinan to Quezon corridor because more than 40% of voters live in those areas.
In fact, Luzon voters outnumber voters in Visayas and Mindanao. There are more than 68 million eligible voters in the 2025 midterm elections. Normally, the voter turnout is only 75% to 80%, or about 55 million.
Luzon voters make up less than 60% of the registered voters, 25% to 28% are from Mindanao, and the rest are from Visayas.
Thus, even if the Dutertes have a solid southern vote, it’s only about 25% or even less because many areas in Mindanao are inaccessible by roads and have no power and internet, making it impossible for people to cast their votes.
The top 10 vote-rich areas are mostly in Luzon, with Southern Tagalog or Region IV-A with 9.3 million votes, followed by Metro Manila with 7.5 million votes, and Central Luzon or Region III with 7.1 million votes.
All six Mindanao regions have more than 16 million votes, while the three Visayas regions have 10.7 million.
However, in the case of senatorial candidates languishing in the 11th and 12th positions, the votes in Caraga Region and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) would matter because these regions are usually canvassed last, owing to the mountains and rivers that election officials have to travel and the lack of power and communication facilities.
From the 1992 elections, official results from Muslim Mindanao decided the outcome of senatorial races.
There had been controversial issues when former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo won over movie action hero Fernando Poe Jr. in the 2004 elections, with the actor getting zero votes in several towns in Maguindanao.
Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri was forced to resign his Senate seat in favor of Koko Pimentel over alleged election fraud in the Muslim Mindanao area.
In another anecdote, a pro-administration candidate outbid an opposition candidate for the 12th slot by buying P5 per vote for a maximum of 200,000 votes in Muslim Mindanao.
The opposition wanted to buy the votes for P3 per vote.
In the first automated elections in 2010, a polling precinct in Datu Odin Sinsuat in Maguindanao stuffed over 1,000 ballots in the counting machines. The automated counting machines were designed to tally only 1,000 votes per machine.
Apart from poll fraud, candidates could resort to black operations, junking, and other tactics to ensure they win in national or local elections.
Buying votes either through wholesale or retail is also popular, usually on the eve of election day.
In some areas, candidates deploy their followers to pay voters in areas where they are expected to lose, marking their nails with ink to prevent them from casting ballots or offering them food and a ride to polling centers to make sure voters who are sympathetic would be able to vote.
There are 101 tricks candidates employ to make sure they win. Those with enormous resources would likely win, spending a fortune to capture an elective position.
Thus, expect billionaires Pacquiao and Villar to throw in a lot of resources to win a Senate seat. It is unknown if Revillame will rely solely on his celebrity status or spend his own money to win the elections.
Imee might not make it after she dropped out of the Alyansa ticket.
Vice Pres. Sara Duterte-Carpio’s endorsement of Imee and Villar could be a kiss of death for their candidacies. Her popularity and that of her father were apparently not transferable. Some of Duterte’s followers do not trust Imee.
Ultimately, the last two slots in the Senate race would be decided by resources, party machinery, and the president’s influence.
The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.
