OPINION | Postponing BARMM elections

November 5, 2024 , 09:16 PM

By Manny Mogato

(November 5, 2024) — Senators had proposed to push back to 2026 the parliamentary elections in the volatile Muslim provinces to amend the law creating the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

They argued that BARMM’s legislative system must be changed after a recent decision by the Supreme Court to separate Sulu province from BARMM.

Congress created BARMM in 2018 after it passed the Muslim region’s fundamental organic law four years after the separatist rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed a peace deal with the Manila government.

Under the BARMM organic law, an 80-seat parliament patterned after Malaysia’s federal system was created for the five provinces: Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.

Seven seats were allocated for Sulu province in the western Mindanao region. However, following the 2019 referendum results, these seats would be removed after a Supreme Court decision.

The BARMM parliament is essential because it will elect its chief minister. It has not been elected as the chief minister since it was created.

In 2019, Murad Ebrahim, the chairman of the MILF central committee, was appointed as an interim chief minister as the head of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) because the first BARMM parliamentary election was scheduled for 2025.

The first election was supposed to happen in 2022 after a three-year interim period, but it was postponed because BARMM needed more time due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Senate proposal could be the second postponement based on a request from the Office of the President. This time, it was due to a Supreme Court decision.

But, more than the Supreme Court decision, there were more pressing issues for delaying the BARMM elections.

Violence could erupt in the region, displacing thousands of residents and disrupting the conduct of electoral exercises. It could lead to the failure of elections in some parts of the Muslim region.

A non-government organization, the Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), conducted a three-year study on conflict in the region, showing that vertical violence had decreased in the Muslim region.

Vertical violence was the level of fighting between the government’s security forces and the Muslim rebel groups, particularly the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

However, the horizontal violence had spiked due to clan feuds fueled by land disputes, political rivalry, and the existence of a shadow economy.

In some cases, there was fighting among different factions within the MILF, which gained prominence and dominance after the peace agreement in 2014.

More recently, 11 people died when three MILF base commands had a clash in a barangay in Pagalungan town, Maguindanao.

The Army had to step in to prevent more bloodshed in the area.

The MILF central leadership appeared to have lost control of some of its local commanders, particularly in southern Maguindanao, where the violence usually erupted.

Some concerns were also aired that political warlords could take over BARMM because the MILF, which organized its political party for the parliamentary elections – United Bangsamoro Justice Party – was not strong enough to win the balloting.

For one, the UBJP has yet to gain political experience compared to traditional political families, which have vast resources, muscle, and influence in local communities they consider bailiwicks.

The MILF depended on the government for financial resources. It had an army, but in most cases, the commanders fought among themselves for various personal interests.

Thus, there were fears the MILF political party could lose to the political families who allied together in a loose coalition called Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC).

At stake in the first BARMM parliamentary elections is the region’s 100 billion pesos special development fund and block grant, created in the peace agreement to spur economic and social development.

Would the MILF return to the path of violence if its political party loses in the elections?

No one knows, but it had to look at past events, like the failure of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) in 2008, which sparked a deadly conflict.

That was also based on a Supreme Court decision.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) said it could hold relatively free and peaceful elections in the region with the help of the armed forces and police.

It said postponing the elections in BARMM could cost the government at least 1 to 3 billion pesos.

It had started accepting certificates of candidacy for the parliamentary elections, but it would only be well-spent if Congress passed a law postponing the balloting anew.

Congress has to move fast if it intends to delay the elections in BARMM. In four months, the election campaign will start in the Muslim region.

The Supreme Court decision on Sulu and the specter of violence are enough to postpone the BARMM elections.

The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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