OPINION | BARMM elections

October 14, 2024 , 11:38 AM

By Manny Mogato

(October 14, 2024) — There are 100 billion reasons why the elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) were hotly contested.

It is a fight between former Muslim rebels and traditional political families. Violence is expected from the opposing sides, who are well-armed and experienced in combat.

Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, the supreme leader of the former Muslim rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), is running for another term as chief minister of the autonomous region.

A coalition of old and traditional political families — Adiongs of Lanao, Tans of Sulu, Hatamans of Basilan, and Mangudadatus and Ampatuans of Maguindanao — in the region would challenge the Murad and the MILF in next year’s elections.

It would be an interesting political battle — old politics against new politics.

The Manila government’s political experiment allowing former Muslim rebels to hold power in the region was not new.

After the Ramos administration struck a deal to end the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) armed rebellion in 1996, Nur Misuari was installed as regional governor.

Other MNLF leaders won public offices as well, like Muslimen Sema, who became Cotabato City mayor, the late Yusop Jikiri, who served as Sulu governor and a congressman, and Farouk Hussein, who replaced Misuari when he was removed in 2001.

The peace experiment with the MNLF failed because the guerrillas fought all their lives and were not ready to govern a problematic autonomous region, a resource-rich but the poorest in the country with limited infrastructure and investments.

In 2014, the government again tried a second experiment after the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed a peace deal. This time, the Moro rebels were ready to transition from a guerrilla group to a political organization running an autonomous government under a new setup.

Some rebel leaders underwent a crash course in governance, policy-making, and program planning. Of course, the government and other countries, like Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the United States, helped in transforming a guerrilla group into a civilian organization.

But six years would not be enough to turn around the way of life in the Bangsamoro region. The whole process of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration would take more time as the MILF inherited gargantuan problems in BARMM.

There are still potential threats of violence from private armed groups and lawless elements, like the Islamic militant Abu Sayyaf, the remnants of the Maute group, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) group.

Murad and his political party, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, faced a formidable threat from the most prominent and influential political clans from the five provinces of the autonomous region, the BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC).

The central government was forced to support Murad, fearing the MILF’s political defeat could result in another armed rebellion from the former Muslim guerrillas.

Some political families have started complaining that Malacañang has begun putting pressure on local officials to back the MILF party or face administrative and criminal charges. They claimed there were also threats that their political escorts would be withdrawn and they may face investigation from the Commission on Audit. They said Malacañang has been using all available pressure points to ensure the poll victory of the MILF in next year’s balloting. Apart from financial and material resources, Malacañang has the muscle — the military and police — and other civilian agencies to make sure the MILF wins in the following May elections.

For a long time, a symbiotic relationship existed between Manila and local political families in the Muslim autonomous region.

Politicians running for a national office often rely on local political families’ support to win elections. Since the 1992 presidential elections, results were canvassed last, allowing some politicians enough elbow room to win the balloting. In exchange, the national politicians turn a blind eye to some irregularities committed by the local politicians to preserve their power and control.

However, the introduction of machines in the electoral process has made it difficult for local politicians to manipulate the results of regional elections and national balloting.

There had been changes in Muslim Mindanao’s political landscape from ten years ago, but violence remained a threat.

Political rivalry and armed groups would heat up next year’s elections. Still, the increase in business opportunities and the P100 billion block grant in the BARMM budget next year were enough reasons why the first parliamentary elections in the region could be bloody and violent.

*The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization

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