OPINION | Dutertes’ stunning election victory

May 13, 2025 , 01:47 PM

By Manny Mogato

(May 13, 2025) – Rodrigo Duterte emerged as the big winner in the May 12 midterm elections, based on the partial and unofficial results of about 80 percent of the 93,000 election returns (ERs) in the Senate races.

He also won the mayoral contest in Davao City, even if he is detained in an International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. However, he cannot serve as mayor.

At least five candidates in the senatorial elections that the former president and his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, have endorsed are ahead in tallies.

Duterte’s loyal assistant, incumbent Senator Bong Go, was in pole position, a runaway winner with almost five million votes ahead of Bam Aquino in the number two position.

Another incumbent senator, Bato dela Rosa, a former national police chief who carried out his bloody and brutal war on drugs, was in third place.

Duterte was arrested in March and turned over to the ICC to face crimes against humanity.

Sagip Party-list Congressman Rodante Marcoleta, another staunch ally of the former president, was in sixth place.

Marcoleta flooded the airwaves in the last seven days before the balloting with his campaign ads, showing Duterte’s endorsement.

Two women candidates, personally endorsed by the vice president, Las Piñas Congresswoman Camille Villar and incumbent Senator Imee Marcos, were in the 10th and 12th positions, respectively.

Incidentally, the two women were among the midterm elections’ big spenders. They reportedly spent more than a billion pesos separately even before the official campaign period started in February.

Initially, they also belonged to “Alyansa” coalition before the administration decided to drop them.

Four independent research organizations had earlier predicted that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s “Alyansa” coalition would dominate the elections, with eight winners based on separate pre-election surveys.

Based on the unofficial election results, only five were winning: ACT-CIS Party-list Congressman Erwin Tulfo, former senators Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto, and incumbent Senators Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid.

Makati Mayor Abby Binay, incumbent Senator Bong Revilla, and former senator Manny Pacquiao had fallen out of the likely winners’ circle.

Broadcaster Ben Tulfo, who consistently was in the surveys’ winner, and game show host Willie Revillame, who was in the tail end of the winners list in pre-election surveys, failed to enter the magic 12. Tulfo was at number 13 while Revillame languished at the 22nd spot.

Former senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan were the likely surprise winners at number 2 and number 5, respectively.

Bam could have benefited from the last-minute endorsement from the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) and from Duterte’s diehard supporters who did not campaign hard against him.

On the other hand, Pangilinan’s intense campaign in the final stretch with strong political leaders and celebrity endorsement, including his wife, Sharon Cuneta, could have helped him raise his chances of winning.

Last Monday’s balloting was a stunning victory for the Dutertes, even if Bam and Kiko won seats in the Senate.

Duterte’s arrest and transfer to the ICC must have been a factor in winning support for candidates identified with the former president. It was a sympathy vote.

Inflation and joblessness also contributed to the collapse of the Marcos team as some of his candidates sought endorsement from other leaders, including the vice president and former vice president Leni Robredo, who won as Naga City mayor by a landslide.

Dismal unemployment numbers days before the election, and the failure to sell 20 pesos per kilo of rice, may have impacted the administration team.

Thus, the Marcos team’s poor performance in the midterm elections was likely seen as a referendum on his performance in office.

It could also hasten Marcos’s popularity to slide, making him a lame-duck president after 2025.

It could bolster the chances of Sara Duterte escaping conviction in an impeachment trial in July.

She needs only eight to nine votes to block a conviction. She won five extra supporters in the midterm elections. Three other likely winners may switch sides – Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, and Pia Cayetano, the sister of another staunch Duterte ally, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano.

Only Lito Lapid and Erwin Tulfo are on Marcos’ side.
Sara has allies in the Senate: Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano, Jinggoy Estrada, Joel Villanueva, and Mark Villar.
Thus, she has enough support to win in the impeachment court and may likely return to power in 2028.

This is bad news for the Marcos administration.

*The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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