OPINION | Who’s afraid of Iglesia ni Cristo?

December 7, 2024 , 01:08 PM

By Manny Mogato

(December 7, 2024) – The small Christian sect Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) has announced on its television network, Net 25, a plan to mobilize its members to protest the impeachment process against Vice Pres. Sara Duterte.

It said it was supporting Pres. Bongbong Marcos Jr. when he said he was against the impeachment process because it would not do good to the country.

That is a perfect excuse.

INC is widely known to support the vice president, but it used the president’s statement as the basis for preparing to mobilize its seven million members.

At a glance, INC’s opposition to the impeachment process would have a big effect on the move to remove Duterte from her position.

It appeared some lawmakers would hesitate to support the motion at the lower house of Congress.

It only takes 103 signatures from members of the House of Representatives to send the impeachment complaint to the Senate for trial.

Otherwise, it would take a tedious 60 days for the impeachment motion for Congress to act, and the closer it gets to the 2025 midterm elections, the more chances Duterte would escape removal from office.

Many congressmen would be reluctant to support the impeachment because they believed INC, as a voting bloc, could affect their poll chances.

Even if the impeachment motion reaches the Senate. Half of the senators are running for elections.

Seven are seeking a second term. Three are seeking local positions. Of course, they also look forward to the INC endorsement, which could help them win public office.

Thus, many political analysts believe there is a slim chance the impeachment would succeed.

The chances to unseat Duterte would be in the hands of the executive branch through legal actions for threatening to kill the president, the first lady, and the speaker of the House of Representatives.

If Sara is found guilty of violating the harsh anti-terrorism law, she could be perpetually disqualified from public office.

She could complete her six-year term as vice president, but the conviction would make her ineligible to run for president in 2028.

But Duterte’s criminal prosecution is a tedious process. She could appeal the conviction to the Supreme Court, but the process would take ages.

Meanwhile, there is no legal impediment for her to seek the presidency in 2028.

Looking at what happened to the United States, a convicted Donald Trump, who is also facing other charges, could easily overturn his legal woes after winning the 2024 elections.

The same thing could happen to Duterte if she wins the 2028 elections.

Stopping her from becoming the president in 2028 would go back to Congress through an impeachment process.

Some lawmakers said time is limited, and it may not complete the process before the May elections.

There is no precedent a Senate trial could continue until after the elections since there are 12 sitting senators. Whether the 12 new senators will participate in the trial is still being determined.

Remember that the impeachment process is not legal but requires strict rules.

It is a political process. If the lawmakers are determined to remove her from her position, they could do it swiftly.

In the House of Representatives, impeaching her with more than 100 signatures to a resolution only takes a day.

House Speaker Martin Romualdez has overwhelming support and could easily muster 100 signatures.

If the president has many allies in the Senate, he could influence them to swiftly end the trial before the elections.

However, INC’s threat to mobilize its members could impede the political process.

So, who’s afraid of INC? Does the INC endorsement in the May 2025 elections affect lawmakers’ decision-making?

Past political exercises would show that the INC endorsement is actually a myth.

For instance, INC endorsed Jinggoy Estrada in the 2019 midterm elections but he lost.

In contrast, Koko Pimentel III did not get the INC endorsement but won in that same election.

On closer scrutiny, INC endorses candidates close to election day when opinion polls are almost sure to predict the outcome of the polls.

Thus, INC chooses to endorse not based on moral values or the character of a candidate based on INC’s religious beliefs.

For instance, it endorsed former president Joseph Estrada in the 1998 elections when it knew he was a womanizer, a gambler, and a heavy drinker.

INC frowns on such behavior and suspends members who drink, gamble, and have multiple relationships.

INC would endorse a candidate based on his or her chances of winning. The 2010 elections shifted support to the late Noynoy Aquino III from Manuel Villar when the survey showed the former would win the polls.

Politicians would win elections with or without the INC endorsement. There were instances when candidates it endorsed failed to win.

Lawmakers must examine their conscience and decide whether to impeach Dutetre based on the merit of evidence against her.

INC’s threat should not matter. The political landscape has changed. The “ayuda” mentality matters. Money is the key in the elections—no longer bloc voting by any religious group. INC’s political endorsement is a myth.

The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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