GRANULAR LOCKDOWN | Researchers doubt new measures to stop virus spread will work

September 6, 2021 , 05:32 PM

By Manny Mogato, News5 editor-at-large

(September 6, 2021) – A group of university researchers on Monday expressed concern over the government’s new approach to cut the chain of transmission of the coronavirus in the country, doubting if the “granular” lockdown will really stop the spread of the deadly disease.

Researchers belonging to OCTA group said the government’s experiment on a new lockdown might fail and worsen the situation because the “granular lockdowns would only work on a smaller scale and not in areas where there are surges in cases.

“We’re concerned that if this does not work, at a point when we’re actually seeing that the curve might plateau soon in two to three weeks, there’s a chance that we might lose effective control of the pandemic and it will become much worse than it is,” Guido David told a cable television interview.

“We’re not saying it will happen but we’re saying that — you know, based on history — there’s a significant chance that it may happen. Regarding the granular lockdowns in the past, we have not seen evidence that it has been effective when we have widespread community transmission.”

David said the granular lockdown will only work in certain regions. “For example, if you have only 40 percent of your barangays with new cases, then it’s feasible that you can impose the granular lockdowns and it may be effective,” he added.

Based on OCTA’s projection, the daily COVID-19 cases will peak next week at 25,00, then a downward trend would be seen if the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila will be retained for one to two weeks more.

“We think that we won’t reach 30,000 if we continue with the MECQ at this time because we might see a peak. We might reach 25,000, 26,000 or so cases,” he said.

The MECQ in Metro Manila will end on September 7, but the health department on Monday reported more than 22,400 cases.

David also said local governments would also be pressured to commit so many people to implement the granular lockdowns.

“Now, if they’re going to do granular lockdowns on a lot of barangays anyway, it will be a manpower initiative because they need people to guard, to man the stations, to bring food to these people who are under lockdown,” David said.

Philippine College of Physicians President Dr. Maricar Limpin said the granular lockdowns may not be as effective as the government sees it because many people live in different areas from their workplace.

“Will the workplaces be able to, you know, understand their absence? Because it’s open,” Limpin said. “The industry is open and therefore, this actually makes it quite difficult for people to really follow the lockdown. They will still go out because they want to be assured that they will still continue to have work.”

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