By Manny Mogato
(March 3, 2025) – The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remained deeply divided on the territorial dispute in the South China Sea as China increased its influence in the region, gaining more allies, including some of the claimant states in one of the major global flashpoints.
Beijing has been winning key support from ASEAN countries through its soft power, an effective carrot approach.
At the same time, its navy and coast Guard vessels employed the stick approach against ASEAN states that dared defy China’s illegal and excessive claim on almost the entire South China Sea.
Thus, efforts failed to resolve the conflicting claims on the strategic waterway where $3 trillion worth of trade passed annually.
A formal and legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea continued to languish for decades due to China’s dilly-dallying and ASEAN member-states’ disagreements over the draft text of the document.
The delays in the conclusion of negotiations in the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea are just symptoms of the deeply rooted distrust among countries in the region.
ASEAN, for a long time, would like to build a close-knit organization, like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
However, ASEAN’s diversity in politics and economics has prevented the bloc from gaining consensus on the territorial dispute.
Who would forget an incident during an ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Cambodia in 2012 when the host country put off the microphone when the late Albert del Rosario, then the Philippine foreign affairs secretary, delivered his intervention, attacking China on its coercive activities in the disputed waters?
When the Philippines hosted the ASEAN Summit in 2017, it was the first time the country watered down a statement on the South China Sea, clearly to please China as then-president Rodrigo Duterte was courting favor from Beijing.
Now, only the Philippines and Vietnam were opposing China. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore were tilting in favor of Manila and Hanoi.
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar supported China while investments, trade, and economic aid swayed Brunei and Thailand to the Chinese side.
The deepening polarization within ASEAN has made it difficult for the Philippines to win backing from the Southeast Asian region, forcing Manila to seek alliances and partnerships with powers outside the Southeast Asian region like Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the United States and even far away European powers France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
The Philippines hopes the collective pressure from these powers could soften China and agree to an early conclusion of measures to help resolve disputes in the South China Sea.
It may also help convince ASEAN states to close ranks and come up with a united stand against China.
Defense secretary Gibo Teodoro Jr. had an impossible task to unite the 10 ASEAN states to resist China’s bullying in the South China Sea.
At a recent ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) retreat in Malaysia, Teodoro’s message may have fallen on deaf ears as many states ignored his warnings that some states are trying to reshape global relations and landscape.
“Peace is now under threat—not due to our incapacity to preserve it, but
because of the absence of unanimity on key issues,” Teodoro said in his intervention at the ADMM retreat.
“Silence in the face of violations diminishes ASEAN,” he said as he called on his Southeast Asian counterparts to resist external attempts to sow division within the bloc.
Teodoro could rephrase his warnings and highlight more positive messages, appealing to a more somber approach along the ASEAN way of consensus.
Some ASEAN states may disagree with his assessment that a northern neighbor threatened the region. Some would agree though.
But a better message was to hit the consensus button.
First, some low-hanging fruits could be picked to start the ASEAN cooperation in the South China Sea rolling.
For instance, ASEAN’s reactions to his warning that some states have region-wide cooperation on maritime security, focusing on environment protection, scientific research, search and rescue operations, and humanitarian and disaster relief operations.
Teodoro has to realize that the Western way of engaging another state in the Asia-Pacific region may not work.
It should not be a direct approach, which the United States and other European states have been doing.
In this part of the world, ASEAN observed many Oriental traditions, putting a premium on the faces of the players.
Teodoro has to learn how ASEAN has been doing its consensus work. It takes a lot of patience.
Teodoro may have to convince China and other Asian states to work together for regional peace and stability, setting aside the territorial claims in the South China Sea.
The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.
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