By Manny Mogato
(May 11, 2025) – More than 68 million eligible Filipino voters will vote on Monday, choosing 12 out of 66 candidates to fill the Senate’s vacant seats.
More than 17,000 local positions will also be at stake, in a political exercise seen as a referendum on Pres. Bongbong Marcos Jr.’s performance in office in the past three years.
Most political observers believed the administration’s “Alyansa” coalition in the Senate race would likely dominate the elections.
Many local candidates closely associated with the administration are also runaway winners in their positions. About 70 to 80 percent of them were running unopposed, like Joy Belmonte of Quezon City and Menchie Abalos of Mandaluyong.
Based on four independent pre-election surveys, eight to nine candidates belonging to President Marcos’ team would make it to the winning circle.
Candidates who were ranked from first to eighth place were deemed safe and were sure of getting elected.
Candidates occupying the ninth to the 12th place were still in danger of falling out of the winners’ circle.
Those in the 13th to the 18th place still have a fighting chance due to the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
Technically, those in the tail end of the surveys were statistically tied and had a chance to win.
For instance, in the last midterm elections in 2019, Francis Tolentino, who was always at the tail end of winning candidates in opinion polls, was unsure to win a seat. However, Tolentino surprised everyone when he landed number 9 in the winning list.
Could another miracle happen again this time? He was nowhere within the winners’ circle. He was in 20th to 23rd place in the company of three candidates supported by former president Rodrigo Duterte – actor Philip Salvador, lawyer and singer Jimmy Bondoc, and Congressman Rodante Marcoleta.
Another pro-administration candidate who has been outside the winning circle, former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos, might not make it. He has been ranked from 16th to 19th in almost all surveys, although he was ahead of Senator Tolentino
Tolentino and Abalos are not losing hope. They still have an ace up their sleeves.
The President endorsed them and nine other candidates as part of the broadening “Alyansa” ticket.
Being part of the Marcos administration’s coalition might help both Abalos and Tolentino win on Monday’s balloting, in the real survey.
Political observers believed President Marcos’ endorsement could bring an extra 10 to 15 percent votes, a significant push.
Besides personal endorsement, the pro-administration candidates would also benefit from the resources and political machinery controlled by the President.
President Marcos could mobilize support from his allies in the regions, provinces and down to city, municipal, and barangay levels to push his endorsed candidates win.
Such is the power of endorsement from a sitting President, who controls the police, teachers, and other bureaucrats involved in the political process.
On the 11th hour of the elections, political endorsements from local political kingpins, religious and civic groups could spell the difference.
Although most political observers believed the endorsement power of religious groups, like the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), is a myth at the national level, it has an impact in the local levels.
Command votes from political kingpins are believable to deliver. Most of these kingpins were political dynasties well entrenched for decades.
For instance the Ortegas in La Union have been in power in various positions in all levels for more than a century.
The Marcoses, Singsons, Dys, Romans, Garcias, Dutertes, Romualdez, Tupazes, and Garins have been around for decades and they could help senatorial candidates win in their areas.
Normally, these endorsements from political warlords and religious groups come hours or days before the elections.
Thus, the outcome of the May 12 balloting may change from what the surveys had showed.
Of course, financial and material resources were also an important factors that would say voters to support candidates.
Reports flooded legacy and social media about retail vote-buying activities in the last days of the campaigning, from a few hundred pesos to crisps thousand peso bills in communities where there are huge number of voters.
It was also possible that wholesale vote buying were happening and could influence the outcome of elections. A minimum of 200,000 to 300,000 votes could be sold by election operators for candidates seeking national positions.
These votes are enough to make candidates in the 13th or 14th positions to leap frog to 11th to 12th positions. These situations had happened in the past.
Of course, only candidates with the backing of a well-oiled political machinery have the biggest chances of winning.
Only the administration coalition has the machinery at the national level to influence the election results. Others should have match the the machinery and resources of the administration to win on May 12.
Thus, the so-called traditional three Gs (guns, goons, and gold) and three Ms (machinery, money and muscle) still rule elections in the Philippines.
Political machinery still matter.
*The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.
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