OPINION | Anti-China US under Trump 2.0

November 16, 2024 , 08:43 AM

By Manny Mogato

(November 15, 2024) – This is good news for Manila.

President-elect Donald J. Trump, on his second term at the White House, has nominated two staunch anti-China politicians from his home state of Florida to be on his security team.

Cuban-American senator Marco Rubio was nominated as the next United States (US) state secretary, replacing Antony Blinken, who just followed the first Trump administration’s clear policy on the South China Sea.

In 2021, in a speech, Rubio warned of a serious geo-economics threat from China, criticizing Wall Street for allowing Chinese companies to invest in American manufacturing and high-tech industries and steal US technologies and secrets.

Michael Waltz, a US congressman, was also tapped as the next national security adviser, replacing Jake Sullivan.

A former Army Green Beret who served several tours in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Africa, Waltz urged the US to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

Political and security analysts expected the second Trump administration to be harsher against China, which the US considers its strategic rival and competitor more than Russia.

There’s a possibility that Washington would be more aggressive with Beijing as Trump prepares for his inauguration in January 2025.

Trump may impose punishing tariff and non-tariff barriers and other economic measures that would make it difficult for China to do business in the US.

Let’s face it, China has surpassed Russia as an economic and military power. It is now the second-biggest economy in the world.

Russia’s military might was exposed when it failed to defeat Ukraine in a war that has dragged on for over two years.

Russian casualties were mounting, and it had to rely on Iran, North Korea, and China to replenish its war stocks.

China’s influence has also increased as it operates in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the Pacific Islands, and Oceania, competing directly with the United States.

Militarily, Beijing would take one or two more decades before it could match Washington’s military power as China’s military lags behind even if it has built the largest navy and coast guard in terms of vessels.

China’s armed forces are untested, unlike the US, which fought conventional and unconventional warfare since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Filipino diplomats and security officials said they expected more material and financial support from the US under the Republican controlled-White House and Congress.

In fact, there was strong bipartisan congressional support for the pending Philippine Enhanced Resiliency Act Law, a proposed legislation allocating $500 million a year for five years to upgrade the local military’s deterrence capabilities.

A $500 million foreign military financing pledged for next year would be used to improve the military’s command and control systems and harden its cybersecurity systems. A part of the funding was also earmarked for C4ISTAR (Command, Control, Computers, and Communication, Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance).

Filipino diplomats and security officials were hoping Washington, under Trump, would not only pay lip service to support the modernization program and the West Philippine Sea issue but would translate its support into actions with an increased number and frequency of maritime drills, intelligence, and information sharing, as well as increased force readiness to address any contingency in the region.

The Philippines is not expecting more cents and dollars but upscaling the soldiers’ individual skills, deploying more modern weapon systems, and boosting its deterrence capabilities.

Under Trump’s first administration, the US policy on the South China Sea became clear.

In July 2019, Mike Pompeo shifted the US policy from ambiguity to clear support, affirming its “ironclad” support to the Philippines.

Before 2019, US policy was unclear, and it was committed to responding to an armed attack in the “metropolitan area” of the Philippines.

Pompeo said the US is committed to responding to any armed attack in the Pacific, including the entire South China Sea that includes the disputed area.

The US changed its policy after the 2016 arbitral ruling nullified China’s illegal nine-dash line claims and awarded the Philippines economic rights within its maritime zones in conformity with the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS).

The ruling, which the US has subscribed to, contradicted China’s position that the arbitral ruling is against UNCLOS.

Thus, the Philippines not only expects continued US support in the South China Sea but also anticipates harsher actions from Washington under Trump regarding the South China Sea and Beijing’s arms-twisting economic policies.

The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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