OPINION | A more dangerous world under Trump

February 27, 2025 , 10:39 AM

By Manny Mogato

(February 28, 2025) – A nuclear weapons race looms after Donald Trump regained control of the Oval Office, abandoning key allies in Western Europe and the Indo-Pacific regions.

Germany, a key security ally that hosts a large number of American military forces, including its nuclear weapons, felt unsafe after Trump refused to blame the Russians for the war in Eastern Europe.

Unsure of its protection, Germany may turn to nuclear weapons states neighbors France and the United Kingdom to provide Berlin with a better security umbrella against a nuclear strike.

It may unilaterally develop, test, and deploy Germany’s nuclear weapons if it feels the security guarantee from France and the United Kingdom is inadequate.

Japan and South Korea also felt the same on the other side of the world. Tokyo and Seoul have increasingly doubted how reliable Washington is as an ally. Both countries also hosted thousands of US military personnel.

They could also begin developing their nuclear weapons program as they faced real atomic threats from China and North Korea.

Pyongyang has been testing its nuclear weapons delivery system, causing concerns not only in Northeast Asia but in Southeast Asia as well.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to condemn North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, including its ballistic missile tests, despite United Nations sanctions.

ASEAN has declared a nuclear weapons-free region but cannot detect if the US planes and ships have nuclear warheads when visiting and transiting the Indo-Pacific region.

The United States maintains a policy of neither confirming nor denying nuclear weapons on its platforms.

There were only five original nuclear weapons states – the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom.

Soon, India, Pakistan, and North Korea joined the nuclear weapons states. Iran has been trying to build its nuclear weapons, making Israel and other Middle East states nervous.

Germany, Japan, and South Korea may easily become nuclear weapons states because of their advanced technology and enormous financial and material resources.

Doubling the number of states possessing nuclear weapons would certainly raise global security concerns, increasing the risks of a nuclear weapons confrontation.

Moscow has been threatening to use its nuclear arsenal to stop the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from supporting Ukraine.

But things have changed, Trump, in his efforts to end the conflict costing billions of American dollars, has shifted his policy and abandoned traditional Western European allies.

For instance, at the United Nations, the United States joined this week 18 other states to vote against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the first time Washington sided with Moscow since the conflict began three years ago.

Trump risked isolating the United States as 93 states, mostly from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supported the three-page resolution presented by Ukraine.

China and 64 other states abstained.

Washington has also frozen for 90 days military funding to its allies and partners as Trump tried to cut down on spending and strengthen the US economy by reducing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

The funding halt would likely affect Ukraine’s efforts to repulse the Russian incursions into its territories and hasten the end of the conflict.

At the same time, Trump has demanded that US allies increase their defense spending, carrying most of the burden of hosting the American military on their soil.

Thus, most US allies believed it should no longer rely on Washington’s security guarantees and should strengthen its deterrence capabilities.

In October when Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba assumed office, he proposed to create an Asian NATO to bring together like-minded states in the region to counter China’s growing influence.

Ishiba doubted the US security umbrella even if Washington considered China its number one competitor and rival, more than Russia.

Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand have been increasing their engagements with Western European states, particularly with NATO allies, to help contain China.

NATO and three Indo-Pacific states have also asked like-minded countries in Southeast Asia, like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam to bolster ties with NATO states.

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom had sent warships into the Indo-Pacific region, expanding its footprints in the Indo-Pacific region. These states shared the region’s concern with China’s growing power.

Only the Philippines remained fully dependent on the US security umbrella, holding on to the US ironclad commitment under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.

But, the US still has to translate rhetoric into action as concerns grew about Trump’s shifting foreign and domestic policies.

The Philippines must stand on its feet and strengthen deterrence capabilities by modernizing its Navy and Air Force. It must upgrade surveillance, interdiction, and missile defense systems to upgrade its anti-access and area denial (A2AD) capabilities.

The time to bolster defenses is now, not tomorrow as the world becomes more dangerous under Trump.

The views expressed by the columnist do not necessarily reflect that of the media organization.

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