‘NOT PREDICTIVE’ | Pulse Asia explains lack of Class A, B in surveys, says a lot can still happen

May 3, 2022 , 10:56 AM

By Beatrice Puente

(May 3, 2022) – Voters, not surveys, will ultimately decide who will win in the 2022 elections, the president of Pulse Asia reiterated on Monday, stressing that so much can still happen in the final stretch of the campaign period.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes noted that surveys only reflect the people’s disposition at a current time. Clarifying misconceptions, he said surveys cannot predict who will win in the actual voting on May 9.

“These pre-election surveys are never predictive,” said Holmes on One News’ The Big Story. “What we need to anticipate is that the people that may have expressed their preference in our survey may not even turn out. So, there are a number of factors that are unknown.”

Former senator Bongbong Marcos Jr. maintained his lead in the Pulse Asia survey conducted from April 16 to 21 at 56%. Vice President Leni Robredo, his staunch rival, trails at 23%. Sen. Manny Pacquiao switched places with Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, getting 7% and 4%, respectively.

But some academics raised issues with the representation of socioeconomic classes. Of the 2,400 respondents, only six were from Classes A and B with a corresponding 40% margin of error. Most of the respondents, roughly around 1,840, were from Class D.

Holmes attributed the high margin of error for Classes A and B to the difficulty of reaching out to higher-income voters who live in gated subdivisions.

“Kung ang napuntahan mong lugar ay isang gated subdivision at ayaw kang papasukin, ‘di mo makukuha ‘yung Class A-B. Hindi sa ine-exclude sila, ‘yun nga lang, may balakid para makuha mo ‘yung pinakamayaman na socioeconomic respondents,” said Holmes on One PH’s Sa Totoo Lang.

He added that they are willing to review their methodologies if the need arises.

“Itong aming metodolohiya, kung lalabas na ito’y may malaking limitasyon lalo na batay sa kalalabasan ng eleksyon, mga akademiko kami, tanggap namin kung ano ‘yung limitasyon at puwedeng pag-aralan anong dapat na pagbabago,” said Holmes.

Despite not seeing a hike in her numbers, Robredo’s camp has remained optimistic that her supporters will help her win, citing the “upward trajectory and momentum.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Ping Lacson, who only garnered 2%, wondered why he got zero votes in Visayas and Mindanao. But he added that he won’t speculate.

Holmes said it might be difficult to compare the trends in previous elections because of the varying contexts in each one. But what’s important is that the people exercise their right to vote.

“Hangga’t hindi bumoboto ang tao, hindi natin masasabi na tapos na ang halalan,” said Holmes. “Ang magdedesisyon kung sinong mananalo ay ang bawat botante na may kanya-kanyang karapatan na pumili sa mga kandidato kung sino ang kanilang ihahalal.”

(PM)

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