OPINION | Davao City politics: Dutertes face tests of political power

October 6, 2024 , 09:44 PM

By Manny Mogato

Rodrigo Duterte is expected to win his bailiwick’s 2025 midterm elections in Davao City.

But, for the first time, the Duterte family faced a potent challenge in an election as political loyalties shifted in Davao City.

Four political families have dominated the city since the late 1980s – Dutertes, Garcias, Nograleses, and Lopezes.

They were all allies before, but they have since parted ways. Old man Duterte is seen to be in his twilight years, and a new generation of politicians has emerged.

Rody Duterte has not lost an election in Davao City since the late 1980s before rising as president in the 2016 balloting.

He also served as one of the city’s three congressmen in 1998. He was also the city’s vice mayor when his daughter, Sara, became mayor in 2010.

Duterte has filed his certificate of candidacy as mayor, returning from retirement in public office to keep his family’s tight grip on the city.

Political analysts believed the 79-year-old politician was the only one capable of stopping any challenger to Davao City’s throne.

The incumbent mayor, Sebastian, has slid to become his running mate, taking no chances of another politician to emerge as a potential challenger.

Sebastian, the son of the former president, was considered weak as the city’s services deteriorated under his watch.

Business permits, which could be obtained in less than a week, were turned into months under Duterte’s son.

His other son, Paolo, would run for his third and last term in a congressional seat. At the same time, his daughter, Sara, is a breath away from the presidency, hanging on until the 2028 presidential elections.

However, Duterte is no longer in his prime, and his health is failing. He has lost weight and is seen looking pale in photographs.

He was often seen on television being assisted to speak behind a podium in “Maisug” rallies against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr after his family’s alliance crumbled this year.

Duterte rose to national prominence around 2013 when he delivered relief goods in Leyte after the monster Typhoon Haiyan that left more than 7,000 people dead and 200,000 households homeless.

Dubbed the “punisher,” he was widely seen as a champion for cleaning the streets of drug peddlers and petty criminals.

There were varying accounts of 29,000 to 25,000 street-level drug traffickers, couriers, and users killed during the six years he was president.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague has initiated an investigation into his genocidal regime. It’s only a matter of time before the ICC issues an arrest warrant for complaints of crimes against humanity against him.

If that happens before the May 2025 midterm elections, it would profoundly impact his chances of winning the elections.

Duterte’s high popularity and influence had waned since 2022, when he stepped down from power, and after his family’s breakup with the Marcoses.

Although he was still listed in the winning circle of 12 among senatorial aspirants in various independent polls, his ranking has declined. He was no longer among the top contenders.

Politicians closely identified with him were also losing support, like Senators Imee Marcos, Ronald dela Rosa, and Bong Go.

Even Senator Francis Tolentino, who decided to leave his political party, suffered because of his long association with Duterte.

Analysts feared that only Duterte and Go would have a good chance of making it to the winners’ circle next year.

However, Duterte is no longer seeking a Senate seat.

While still in power, Duterte enjoyed 80 to 90 percent approval and trust ratings.

That seemed to have vanished, affecting his daughter’s popularity as well. Recent polls showed Sara’s trust and approval ratings dropping significantly, although her numbers remained high.

Although Duterte is seen as the winner in the 2025 midterm elections, it would still be a litmus test of Duterte’s brand’s political strength.

There have been many factors working against the Dutertes. First, a serious challenger has emerged in Davao City.

Duterte was forced to leave retirement to preserve the family’s dominance, knowing his son was not strong enough to defeat a challenger.

The Nograles political family is also a formidable political opponent. It has a tight grip on Davao’s first congressional district.

The Dutertes had survived elections due to alliances with two other political families in the second and third districts.

For instance, Duterte won as mayor in the late 1980s when the Garcia clan backed him up in the second district.

The Garcia controlled the second district, with the late Manuel Garcia winning in the 1992 congressional elections. His son, Vincent, succeeded him, and a sister, Mylene, took over for three terms before returning it to Vincent.

However, the Garcias are shifting allegiance to President Marcos, a known political foe of the Dutertes.

Analysts said the Garcias shift could be a game changer in Davao politics.

In the third district, the Lopez family had already challenged the Dutertes when lawyer Ruy Elias Lopez ran for mayor in May 2022 against Sebastian.

Lopez’s father, Elias, was a former councilor, vice mayor, mayor, and congressman. The Lopez family still has some clout in the third district.

If the Nograleses, Garcias, and Lopezes combined, they could severely threaten an ailing and old Duterte.

Of course, Duterte may still win, but he won’t see the overwhelming dominance he used to enjoy.

This could be Duterte’s last election before he sees the family’s political dynasty collapsing.

(AAD)

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