Proposed changes to pre-election survey methods need careful study

Proposed changes to pre-election survey methods need careful study – pollster

May 14, 2025 , 11:33 PM

By Clarist Mae Zablan

(May 14, 2025) – Amid calls for survey firms to revisit their methods in conducting pre-election surveys, citing a need to account for the growing “youth vote,” a major pollster on Wednesday stressed that this will need to be carefully studied.

The results of this year’s senatorial elections surprised many as a number of candidates who seemed to be lagging in surveys did not only enter the so-called Magic 12, but were also among the candidates who garnered the highest votes based on partial and unofficial tallies.

Some analysts noted that the polling firms could have underrepresented the Millennial and Gen Z voters, who comprised as many as 60% of the registered voters nationwide.

ALSO READ: Surprise bets made it into Senate ‘Magic 12’ in partial, unofficial results

“Now what we need to find out is what brought about the difference between a survey done three weeks before the election and the actual results. And that would take a little bit more time,” Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said on One News’ “Storycon.”

Pulse Asia conducted its final pre-election survey from April 20 to 24, around three weeks before the 2025 national and local elections on May 12.

Holmes said the pollster could face challenges in adjusting their sampling methods to match the growing number of youth voters, noting that the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) doesn’t have “age-disaggregated” data on the voter turnout — the percentage of registered voters who actually voted per age range.

“I would rather ask the COMELEC: may data ba sila ng ilan by age ang bumoto? Ang problema, I’ve asked that many times to the COMELEC in the past years. Wala e,” he said.

“May data privacy issues kasi e. I’m sure the data is there, but, you know, the ballot doesn’t indicate ano’ng sex, ano’ng age mo e. So it would be very hard for us, unless we do… an exit poll. Doon malalaman, ilan ang bumoto na Iglesia ni Cristo, ilan ang bumoto na, let’s say Katoliko, mga Cebuano, and mga kabataan.”

(CD)

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