OPINION | Web of Alliances

June 5, 2024 , 06:34 PM

By Manny Mogato

At the Shangri-La Dialogue early this month, Chinese security officials accused the United States of developing a new defense architecture similar to the Euro-Atlantic’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Top Chinese defense and military officials said Washington was trying to bring smaller alliances into one big circle of United States-led security organizations in the Indo-Pacific region.

They said Washington has been encouraging European powers – like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany – to conduct freedom of navigation operations in the East and South China Seas to challenge Beijing’s excessive and illegal claims in the region’s strategic waters.

About $3 trillion worth of seaborne trade passes annually through disputed waters in the South China Sea.

China’s increasing presence and coercive activities threaten regional peace and security, affecting the food and energy security of smaller coastal states like the Philippines.

However, China was stretching its imagination too much. The Indo-Pacific states are unlike the homogenous European countries.

The 32-member NATO states share a common vision, values, and interests in stopping Russia from expanding and annexing the former states that belong to the former Soviet Union that collapsed in the early 1990s.

The Indo-Pacific states comprise diverse economic, political, cultural, and ideological nations.

They include multi-party democratic and single-party authoritarian states. One is even ruled by a monarchy.

Unlike in Europe where 30 NATO states looked up to the United States as a leader, some Indo-Pacific states are loyal to the United States and its rival China. Some kept the Russians as close friends and allies.

China’s fears are not without basis because the US has allowed countries in the region to form alliances with each other. Some did not include the United States.

For instance, the US supported the triangular alliance of India, Japan, and Vietnam.

It also supported the Five Powers arrangement among the United Kingdom, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Singapore.

However, the United States has formed the Australia, the Philippines, and the United States alliance.

Manila has the Visiting Forces Agreement with both Washington and Canberra. It created the JAPHUS, the trilateral pact between Japan, the Philippines, and the United States.

Japan and the Philippines are negotiating a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), a legal framework similar to the VFA.

Japan and Australia have an existing RAA that is helpful in the trilateral arrangement between Australia, Japan, and the United States.

The US also has a similar arrangement with Japan and South Korea.

The US has a quadrilateral arrangement with India, Japan, and Australia on a much larger scale.

The US replicated the alliance among Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, replacing India.

It had conducted joint sail in disputed waters in the West Philippine Sea in the first half of 2024.

The US has no plans to bring together all these alliances into one security umbrella.

However, the existing alliances could be brought under a web of security arrangements, interacting with each other and could also work together in separate and independent partnerships.

It would be difficult to create a NATO-like organization in the Indo-Pacific.

For one, the nations in the region have different military doctrines, tactics, and orientations.

Interoperability is also difficult because some operate Western weapons systems while others have Russian and Chinese equipment.

It is easy for the Americans to train and hold drills with Indo-Pacific states that share similar equipment, doctrines, and orientations.

However, some states must familiarize themselves with non-Western orientations’ equipment, training, and doctrines.

Moreover, many states in the region harbor deep suspicions and distrust among each other.

Many Southeast Asian states have unresolved territorial and border disputes and had minor skirmishes before.

For instance, Thailand and Cambodia had fought border wars. Vietnam suspects Cambodia of helping China by allowing Beijing’s warships into its naval base.

Indonesia and Malaysia also had border problems, similar to Singapore and Malaysia. Singapore and Indonesia also have an issue.

The Philippines has unresolved claims on Sabah.

Vietnam is friendly to Russia but distrusts China. It has made friends with the United States and a fellow Southeast Asian state, the Philippines.

Indo-Pacific states may have common and mutual security interests and concerns, but they have petty issues to resolve among themselves.

For now, China is emerging as a security threat to the region, although a few states would disagree, like Cambodia, Laos and Brunei.

ASEAN, as a whole, does not want to be labeled as pro-US and pro-China. It does not want to take sides to avoid complications.

ASEAN wanted to bridge relations among rival states and between two oceans – the Pacific and Indian.

Such realities will make it hard for either the United States or China to expand their spheres of influence in the region.

It will be doubly difficult for the United States to create a NATO-like alliance.

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